Page 5 - IDEA Testovani na Covid19 brezen2020 5

IDEA anti COVID-19 # 5
The economics of testing for Covid-19:
beware of greater damage than benefit4 MARCH 2020
Jan Kulveit, 5 Jakub Steiner6
Summary
• There are limited numbers of tests for Covid-19, especially of the more precise type known as PCR tests. That means they must be used as efficiently as possible, in terms of which people are tested. Efficiency in the use of these tests is not only a matter of revealing how many people are infected, but also has to do with the potential ability of those tested to spread the infection further, which a positive test result can help to prevent. The algorithms by which the short supply of Covid-19 tests is assigned must therefore be grounded in the social, rather than individual benefits of testing. People whose testing brings maximum social benefit should be given priority.
• The social benefit of testing a particular person is calculated primarily in terms of the a priori likelihood (rough estimation) of that person being infected, based on information about where they live and their lifestyle. The second important criterion is that individual’s epidemiological significance, which is an indication of how much the individual in questions comes into contact with, and is likely to come into further contact with other at-risk people. This can also be established by asking pertinent questions to the individual themselves, complemented if desired by a survey in the place where they live.
4 This study represents the authors’ own views and not the official position of the Czech Academy of Sciences’ Economics Institute nor of the Charles University Centre for Economic Research and Graduate Education (CERGE). We are grateful to the following people for helpful comments on the working version of the text: Pavel Boguský, Petr Chytil, Marek Kapička and Daniel Münich. Any inaccuracies or errors are the authors’ responsibility. The study was produced with support from the Czech Academy of Sciences as part of its AV21 Strategy programme and Experientia Foundation.
5 Oxford University, jk@ks.cz
6 CERGE-EI and University of Zurich, jakub.steiner@cerge-ei.cz
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