Page 6 - IDEA Studie 04 2023 Bydleni

SNÍŽILA BY VĚTŠÍ BYTOVÁ VÝSTAVBA CENOVÝ RŮST NEMOVITOSTÍ V LETECH 2013–2021? PRAVDĚPODOBNĚ NE IDEA 2023 • This study presents several hypothetical scenarios as regards future trends. If the Czech National Bank’s basic interest rate stabilises within the next three years at the expected 3% level, mortgage interest rates are around 4.9%, and the inflation target of 2% is met, then the implicit costs of mortgage financing will increase by 20% even if real household incomes rise by 3.2% (as they did in the boom years of 2013-2021). Although the impact on residential property prices would be partially reduced by the income effect, it would still take more than 6 years for that effect to fully compensate for the increase in the costs of mortgage financing. • This analysis relates to the Czech Republic as a whole and does not reflect regional differences or region-specific influences. • This study is based on Roman Šustek’s academic paper “A back-of-the-envelope analysis of house prices: Czech Republic, 2013-2021” (2022), which includes a detailed description ofthe method used and the study’s mathematical calculations. The method described in the study combines approaches currently used by the Czech National Bank and is capable of explaining house price movements 2013–2021. Although the study uses the latest, often complex, approaches to analysing the property markets, it offers a simple, practical method for approximating how individual factors affect price movements. 4