Page 6 - Studie IDEA 08 2020 Vysoka cena nizkeho vzdelani

VYSOKÉ NÁKLADY NÍZKÉHO VZDĚLÁNÍ V ČESKÉ REPUBLICE IDEA 2020
the least ambitious reform scenario represents an annual GDP addition of 18 billion CZK. This potential impact is far greater than, for example, current expenditure on what is known as “inclusion”, which is close to 10 billion CZK per year. More ambitious reform scenarios yield GDP impacts in the range of hundreds of billions of CZK per year. The gross return on measures to reduce the proportion of insufficiently literate pupils is thus substantially or very substantially higher than the conceivable costs of implementing such measures. Our estimates of the gross return on such reforms may serve as an upper bound when considering how much public spending on measures to raise literacy is worthwhile or acceptable.
• The more substantial impacts of these scenarios are noticeable only after the year 2050, in other words from around 30 years after the intervention. This is because the gradual increase in literacy among low-skilled fifteen-year-olds over a period of ten years as a result of targeted measures will only begin to contribute to an increase in workforce productivity over the course of the following decades, once these more literate year-groups have entered the labour market and once they begin to make up a greater share of the workforce.
• In this study we do not propose or evaluate any specific measures or reforms to raise literacy levels of low skilled. Our analysis is primarily focused on potential returns, rather than costs. Any measures should, nevertheless, be based on more detailed data and analysis of the incidence of insufficient pupil literacy and its causes than the Czech Republic has so far obtained only thanks to international selective surveys such as the OECD’s PISA. Measures should also undergo pilot testing and an analysis of their costs and benefits should be carried out.
• Besides lower future earnings and foregone GDP growth, insufficient literacy among fifteen-year-olds also represents an obstacle to their full integration into society, their enjoyment of the benefits of technological development and globalization more generally, and increases their risk of poverty, unhealthy lifestyles, criminal tendencies, etc. Targeted higher quality education for these pupils would, in addition to the economic returns we have estimated, also result in financial savings on public expenditures, for example through savings on social benefits andspending on security and addressing criminality. Reducing the incidence of insufficient literacy would also give those affected a chance to gain even higher levels of education and thus transmit the positive effects to future generations.
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