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Study 21/2016
80% Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Analysis of Czech Energy Industry Development Until 2050 DECEMBER 2016
Lukáš Rečka, Milan Ščasný
Summary
 The goal of European Union’s Energy Roadmap 2050 is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 80% compared with the baseline of 1990. The presented paper evaluates the implications of several pathways to reach this goal, and compares them to the existing State Energy Policy (MPO 2015b), which may lead to a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 66.5%.
 Using the TIMES energy partial equilibrium model, we analyse the reference scenario based in the existing State Energy Policy (SEK) and three alternative low-emission scenarios that will reach the 80% GHG emission reduction target by 2050, which follow three different pathways of the nuclear energy developments (N35, N45 and N-opt). In all the scenarios, the resulting technology and fuel mix is a product of total production costs minimisation, with respect to the exogenous technological constraints. The cost minimization does not include any external costs of energy transformation, and, therefore, cannot be taken as social optimum considering all costs and benefits associated with energy transformation.
 The SEK reference scenario envisages a net electricity consumption growth up to 80 TWh by 2050. Due to a higher share of electric vehicles, the low-carbon scenarios operate with a net electricity consumption growth up to 83 TWh by 2050.
 The N-opt low-emission scenario leaves the choice of the technology mix exclusively on market mechanisms (with the goal to minimise production costs). The low-emission scenarios N35 and N45 envisage a political decision to build new nuclear reactors; they differ only in the projected lifespan of Dukovany nuclear power plant, and the commissioning date of the new nuclear reactors.
 The EU ETS system of emission allowances trading is not an effective instrument for achieving the 80% cut in greenhouse gas emissions; to achieve the target, emissions must be progressively reduced also in sectors not included in the EU ETS. The target of 80% also cannot be achieved without a significant reduction in the consumption of lignite.
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