Page 5 - IDEA Studie 3 2022 Proc rostou vydaje statniho rozpoctu

Study 3 / 2022 Increase of CZK 395 billion compared to 2019: Where the first draft expenditure in the state budget for 2022 was headed2 JANUARY 2022 DANIEL KOLÁŘ, PETR JANSKÝ Summary • The draft state budget (SB) for 2022 submitted at the end of summer 2021 by the outgoing government of Andrej Babiš planned for expenditures of 1,928 billion CZK. That would be 394.5 billion CZK, and 25.7% more than the actual expenditure of the SB in 2019. Such a significant increase in expenditure, unaccompanied by an adequate increase in revenues, would significantly increase the structural deficit of the SB. The new government of Petr Fiala has therefore decided to revise the original draft budget in a new provisional budget. • In this study, we identify the expenditure items in the original draft of the SB that have changed most significantly from the situation in 2019. We also show to what extent the nominal growth in the SB items takes inflation into account, which was expected to be 10.2% in this period. Comparison with the actual expenditure of 2019 allows us to shield the direct expenditure consequences of the pandemic. In fact, according to the initial proposal of the SR, the assistance programmes for households and employers during the pandemic were already expected to be reduced significantly in 2022. o Pensions (including disability or widow’s pensions) show an increase of 18% (CZK +84 billion) to a total of CZK 556 billion. o Socialexpenditure,includingparentalallowanceorchildbenefit,increase by 28% (CZK +36 billion), largely compensating for their long-term nominal stagnation. o Contributions to health insurance companies for state insured persons show an increase of 93% (CZK +67 billion). 2 We would like to thank IDEA for support and Aleš Bělohradský, Petr Bouchal, Ladislav Frühauf, Jan Pavel and Daniel Münich for their useful comments. Any remaining inaccuracies or errors, as well as all opinions expressed are the authors’ own. This study was produced with the support from the Czech Academy of Sciences as part of its AV21 Strategy programme “Society in Motion and Public Policies”. 3